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星期六, 六月 30, 2007
关于美国佩尤研究中心年度调查
张三按：这个BBC中文网的报道当然是受到国内媒体热烈追捧的，大有别于去年由BBC委托并报道的Globescan的调查。但角度似乎有点问题，似乎让人得出专门针对中国进行调查的印象，而且题目容易引起误导，就和如果把题目写成《西方国家对华印象大幅度恶化》一样。而这个调查实际是以美国和全球环境问题为主角，中国充当了一个配角。BBC中文网和Pew的原文摘要均附后，等有空再翻译点吧。
看中文媒体，哪怕是海外知名媒体的中文部，似乎也要留个心眼。因为这往往是华人写的；而海外华人中的大多数是在大陆成长并受教育，思维模式难以客观。海外民运的失败，主要原因之一，也是这样的异曲同工。
佩尤报告：Global Unease With Major World Powers
Rising Environmental Concern in 47-Nation Survey
Released: 06.27.07Navigate this report
Summary of Findings
Summary of Findings
Complete Report (2.2MB .pdf)
2007 Topline: Includes all results from the current survey (783K .pdf)
Trend Topline: Includes current results as well as trends from previous surveys (1.2MB .pdf)
FigureA 47-nation survey finds global public opinion increasingly wary of the world's dominant nations and disapproving of their leaders. Anti-Americanism is extensive, as it has been for the past five years. At the same time, the image of China has slipped significantly among the publics of other major nations. Opinion about Russia is mixed, but confidence in its president, Vladimir Putin, has declined sharply. In fact, the Russian leader's negatives have soared to the point that they mirror the nearly worldwide lack of confidence in George W. Bush.
FigureGlobal distrust of American leadership is reflected in increasing disapproval of the cornerstones of U.S. foreign policy. Not only is there worldwide support for a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, but there also is considerable opposition to U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan. Western European publics are at best divided about keeping troops there. In nearly every predominantly Muslim country, overwhelming majorities want U.S. and NATO troops withdrawn from Afghanistan as soon as possible. In addition, global support for the U.S.-led war on terrorism ebbs ever lower. And the United States is the nation blamed most often for hurting the world's environment, at a time of rising global concern about environmental issues.
FigureAt the same time, China's expanding economic and military power is triggering considerable anxiety. Large majorities in many countries think that China's growing military might is a bad thing, and the publics of many advanced nations are increasingly concerned about the impact of China's economic power on their own countries.
Russia and its president also are unpopular in many countries of the world. But criticisms of that nation and its leader are sharpest in Western Europe where many citizens worry about overdependence on the Russian energy supply. For instance, despite sharp declines in favorable views of the U.S. in France and Germany since 2002, Russia's image in those countries is no better.
There is little evidence that discontent with the major nations of the world and their leaders is resulting in greater confidence in those who have challenged the global status quo. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez inspires little public confidence, even in Latin America, and huge majorities in most countries also say they have little or no confidence in Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to do the right thing regarding world affairs. There also is broad opposition to Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons. Citizens all around the world voice substantial concern about the threat posed by a nuclear-armed Iran. This includes the Muslim publics of neighboring nations such as Kuwait and Turkey.
The Pew survey finds a general increase in the percentage of people citing pollution and environmental problems as a top global threat. Worries have risen sharply in Latin America and Europe, as well as in Japan and India. Many people blame the United States – and to a lesser extent China – for these problems and look to Washington to do something about them.
As was the case in Pew's first major global survey in 2002, global concerns vary significantly by region of the world. The spread of nuclear weapons is a growing worry in the Middle East – it is named as a top global danger in that region, along with religious and ethnic hatreds.
AIDS and other infectious diseases continue to be viewed as the dominant threat in Africa and a major concern in Latin America. Yet the polling also finds that African publics are increasingly concerned about the growing gap between rich and poor. In addition, the belief that economic inequality represents a major global danger has become much more prevalent in South Korea and Russia.
In the face of strong criticisms of its foreign policy, the U.S. is cited in many countries about as often as the U.N. as the entity that should be responsible for dealing with the problems that confront the world. This is particularly the case among people who are most concerned about the spread of nuclear weapons. But when it comes to AIDS and the gap between rich and poor, many who see these as important threats look to their own countries to provide solutions.
FigureMost people in the survey, conducted in 46 countries and the Palestinian territories, have a favorable view of the United Nations. Negative views of the U.N. are most prevalent in the Middle East. Large majorities in both the Palestinian territories (69%) and Israel (58%) express unfavorable opinions of the world body. U.S. opinion of the U.N. remains mixed – 48% have a favorable view, 39% unfavorable. For the most part, global opinion of the European Union parallels opinion of the U.N.; in the U.S. roughly twice as many have a positive view of the EU than a negative one (47% vs. 22%), although many Americans offer no opinion (30%).
Anti-Americanism: Deeper But Not Wider
In the current poll, majorities in 25 of the 47 countries surveyed express positive views of the U.S. Since 2002, however, the image of the United States has declined in most parts of the world. Favorable ratings of America are lower in 26 of 33 countries for which trends are available.
The U.S. image remains abysmal in most Muslim countries in the Middle East and Asia, and continues to decline among the publics of many of America's oldest allies. Favorable views of the U.S. are in single digits in Turkey (9%) and have declined to 15% in Pakistan. Currently, just 30% of Germans have a positive view of the U.S. – down from 42% as recently as two years ago – and favorable ratings inch ever lower in Great Britain and Canada.
For all of the bad news, however, the global survey of 47 nations, conducted throughout the world, reveals a more complex picture of opinions of the United States.
First, the U.S. image remains positive in Africa. In several African countries, such as Ethiopia and Kenya, it is overwhelmingly positive. In addition, majorities in two of America's most important Asian trading partners – India and Japan – continue to express favorable opinions of the United States. And the U.S. image has improved dramatically in South Korea since 2003 (from 46% to 58% favorable).
While opinion of the U.S. has slipped in Latin America over the past five years, majorities in such countries as Mexico, Peru and even Venezuela still say they have a positive opinion of their large neighbor to the north. Similarly, "new Europe" likes America better than "old Europe," although the U.S. image is not nearly as strong in Eastern Europe as it was five years ago.
And while negative views of the U.S. continue to prevail in much of the Muslim world, anger is not as universal today as it was in the spring of 2003 after the start of the war in Iraq. At that time, just 1% of Jordanians – and less than 1% in the Palestinian territories – gave a favorable rating to the United States, compared with 20% and 13%, respectively, today. And while still far from positive, America's image has recovered substantially in Lebanon as well.
However, opinions of the American people have declined over the past five years in 23 of 33 countries where trends are available. In Indonesia and Turkey, where favorable views of the U.S. have declined markedly over the past five years, opinions of Americans have fallen sharply as well. In Indonesia, positive opinions of Americans have fallen from 65% in 2002 to 42%; in Turkey, favorable opinions have declined 19 points.
While opinions of Americans have fallen in most Western European countries, they remain generally positive. In every Western European country surveyed, far more people express positive opinions of Americans than they do of the U.S.; in Germany, for instance, 63% say they have a positive opinion of Americans compared with just 30% who rate the U.S. positively.
In fact, in many countries, the American people get better ratings than does the U.S. generally. Latin America is a consistent exception to this rule. In this region, Americans get about the same ratings as their country; either both are mostly favorable, as in Venezuela and Peru, or both are quite low, as in Argentina.
Opinions that Influence America's Image
This is by far the largest global survey Pew has conducted since 2002. As such, it provides a broad perspective on anti-Americanism, documenting the nature and breadth of negative perceptions of the U.S.
Among key U.S. allies in Western Europe, the view that the U.S. acts unilaterally is an opinion that has tracked closely with America's overall image over the past five years. Ironically, the belief that the United States does not take into account the interests of other countries in formulating its foreign policy is extensive among the publics of several close U.S. allies. No fewer than 89% of the French, 83% of Canadians and 74% of the British express this opinion.
FigureU.S. policies also are widely viewed as increasing the gap between rich nations and poor nations. This is even the case in several countries where the U.S. is generally well regarded. In addition, this is one of the few criticisms of the U.S. that is widely shared around the world and with which a plurality of Americans (38%) agree.
Critiques of the U.S. are not confined to its policies, however. In much of the world there is broad and deepening dislike of American values and a global backlash against the spread of American ideas and customs. Majorities or pluralities in most countries surveyed say they dislike American ideas about democracy – and this sentiment has increased in most regions since 2002. However, sizable majorities in most African nations – as well as in Israel, South Korea and Japan – continue to express positive views of the U.S. approach to democracy. In addition, a small plurality in China says they like rather than dislike American ideas about democracy (48% to 36%).
Public rejection of American democracy in most countries may in part reflect opinions about the way in which the United States has implemented its pro-democracy agenda, as well as America's democratic values. Majorities in 43 of 47 countries surveyed – including 63% in the United States – say that the U.S. promotes democracy mostly where it serves its interests, rather than promoting it wherever it can.
FigureThe poll also finds negative attitudes toward American ways of doing business. Dislike of the U.S. approach has deepened. However, Muslim countries in the Middle East are a notable exception, despite their generally poor opinion of the U.S. As many as 71% of Kuwaitis, 63% of Lebanese, and even 40% of Palestinians say they like the American way of doing business. But the greatest admirers of the American approach to business continue to be in Africa, where huge majorities in countries such as Kenya and Nigeria endorse it.
While many around the world fault American ideals, there is still considerable admiration for U.S. technology and a strong appetite for its cultural exports. In 42 of 46 foreign countries surveyed, majorities say they admire U.S. technological and scientific advances. In Russia, however, a majority (53%) says nyet to American scientific achievements. Similarly, in most parts of the world, majorities report liking American music, movies and television. However, there is greater dissent with regard to these pop culture exports; majorities in several predominantly Muslim countries, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey, Jordan and Egypt, say they dislike American music, movies and television. Indians and Russians also express negative views of U.S. cultural exports.
Despite near universal admiration for U.S. technology and a strong appetite for its cultural exports in most parts of the world, large proportions in most countries think it is bad that American ideas and customs are spreading to their countries. The percentage expressing disapproval has increased in many countries since 2002 – including Great Britain (by 17 percentage points), Germany (14 points) and Canada (13 points). Israel, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast and Nigeria are the only countries (aside from the U.S.) in which majorities say they like the spread of American customs.
As noted, however, the U.S. is not alone in drawing the increasing ire of people in other countries. The poll also finds flagging views of China, an emerging superpower. Favorable views of China have fallen in Western Europe – particularly in Spain, Germany and France. And while China's image is generally positive in Asia, it has grown somewhat more negative in India and much more negative in Japan, where unfavorable opinions of China now outnumber positive ones by more than two-to-one (67%-29%).
Opinion of China's growing economic power is decidedly negative in Western Europe, where nearly two- thirds of Italians and the French believe this trend is bad for their country. Only in Sweden is there a positive view of this development. The polling also finds concern about China's economic clout in Mexico, Czech Republic, South Korea and India. In sharp contrast, the publics of the African nations surveyed give thumbs up to China's economic power.
FigureMajorities or pluralities in the 10 African countries surveyed believe that China has at least a fair amount of influence on their countries. Most people in the African countries surveyed also say that the U.S. has considerable influence; however, U.S. influence is rivaled or exceeded by China's in a number of African countries, including Mali and Ivory Coast.
Similarly, many people in Latin America believe that China is having an important influence on their countries. While China's perceived impact in this region is not as great as that of the U.S., majorities in Venezuela and Chile, and half of Mexicans, say China's influence is growing. In general, Africans are more positive than Latin Americans about the growing influence of both China and the U.S. on their countries. But in both regions, somewhat greater percentages say China's influence is a good thing than say that about U.S. influence.
Additional Findings
* Many of the publics of NATO countries with significant numbers of troops in Afghanistan are divided over whether U.S. and NATO forces should be brought home immediately, or should remain until the country is stabilized. In the U.S., 50% favor keeping U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, while 42% say they should be withdrawn as soon as possible.
* The Turkish public, which has soured on the U.S., also has become more critical of the European Union. Just 27% of Turks have a favorable opinion of the European Union, down from 58% in 2004.
* Former Soviet bloc nations are deeply divided in their views of Russia. Fully 81% in Ukraine have a positive opinion of Russia, but solid majorities in both Poland and the Czech Republic express negative views.
* America's image in Venezuela has eroded considerably. Favorable opinions have declined by nearly 30 percentage points since 2002, though a majority (56%) still has a positive impression of the U.S.
* People in Japan and Israel are deeply concerned over the spread of nuclear weapons. Roughly two-thirds in both countries cite nuclear proliferation as top global threat – more than any other nation surveyed.
* Muslim publics in the Middle East express fairly negative views of Iran, with the exception of the Palestinians. But in several Muslim countries outside of the Middle East, majorities have favorable opinions of Iran, including Bangladesh (77% favorable) and Pakistan (68%).
* Russian President Putin inspires much more confidence from his people than does President Bush. More than eight-in-ten Russians (84%) say they have a lot or some confidence in Putin's approach to world affairs; just 45% of Americans say the same abut Bush.
Roadmap to the Report
The first chapter examines international opinions about the United States and American foreign policy, including views of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the U.S.-led war in terror. The second chapter focuses on public attitudes toward global threats, documenting a widespread increase in concern about pollution and environmental problems. Chapter 3 looks at reactions to China's growing economic and military power. Chapter 4 examines international opinions about Iran, its president, and nuclear program. Chapter 5 focuses on attitudes toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Middle Eastern leaders. Chapter 6 looks at views of major leaders and institutions. Chapter 7 provides a look at opinions about Russia.
Complete Report (2.2MB .pdf)
2007 Topline: Includes all results from the current survey (783K .pdf)
Trend Topline: Includes current results as well as trends from previous surveys (1.2MB .pdf)
Navigate this report
Summary of Findings
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BBC中文网：全球民调：多数人对中国印象积极
中国上海街景(资料图片)报告称世界民众对中国印象主要仍然积极。
一项全球民意调查反映，虽然中国的国际形象近年有恶化趋势，但是多数受访国家民众仍然对中国抱有好感。
美国华盛顿佩尤研究中心的年度《全球态度调查》报告显示，在47个接受调查的国家中，27个国家的受访民众对中国抱正面态度。
接受调查的国家中只有五个国家的多数民众对中国持负面态度，其中包括日本和意大利。
接受调查的国家民众普遍认为中国经济发展对自己国家有利，但在部分国家，认为中国经济发展是个威胁的民众比例也在上升。
此外，世界民众普遍对中国的军事扩张感到忧虑。
地域区别
亚洲国家普遍对中国有好感。其中马来西亚最多人（83%）对中国感觉正面、巴基斯坦有79%、印尼有65%。
而在日本、韩国和印度三个中国主要邻国，当地民众对中国的态度则有较大的恶化。
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日本有67%民众对中国态度负面，比2002年增加25%；韩国只有52%受访者表示喜欢中国，比2002年下跌了14%；而印度只有46%的人对中国有好感，比2005年下跌了10%。
欧洲民众对中国的不满情绪也在加深，意大利、德国和法国等国都有50%以上受访民众表示对中国不满，其中意大利的比例更高达61%。
而在另外几个欧洲国家也可以清楚看到对中国不满人数的增加，对中国有好感的西班牙人比例下跌了18%，英国人下跌16%，德国人下跌12%、法国人下跌11%。
在美洲，智利、委内瑞拉、秘鲁和加拿大民众过半数对中国抱有好感，美国欢迎和讨厌中国的受访者拉成均势，分别有42%和39%。
在非洲国家中，除南非和乌干达外的所有国家都有60%以上的民众对中国有好感，其中在科特迪瓦和马里，这一比例更高达92%。
发展军力
针对中国近年大力发展军事力量，中国邻国的受访者明显最为担心。
89%韩国受访者和80%日本受访者觉得，中国军事膨胀对他们有很大影响。印度也有59%民众表达了相同的忧虑。
美国和加拿大超过60%受访者认为，中国军事扩张对于他们国家来说不是好的事情。法国保持这个观点的民众更高达84%。
俄罗斯70%民众认为，中国军事扩张是坏消息。中东国家除了科威特外，大都对中国军事发展抱有怀疑态度。
经济膨胀
相对于军事发展，世界各国普遍正面看待中国的经济发展。46个受访国家当中，25个国家民众认为中国经济飙升对于他们国家来说是恩惠。
中国对非洲投资的影响在这次调查得到充分反映，部分非洲国家对中国经济增长出现100%的正面回应。
科特迪亚96%受访者认为中国发展对他们有利；肯尼亚民众91%抱持相同看法。
亚洲国家几乎也都保持这种看法。马来西亚、孟加拉、印尼和巴基斯坦，以至于对中国扩军存有恐惧的日本和俄罗斯都是如此。
只有印度和韩国民众对中国的经济发展表示担心。印度只有42%的民众表示认同中国经济发展，民众比两年前倒退11%；韩国则有60%的人视中国经济为威胁。
佩尤研究中心报告指出，中国在世界上的影响力可以跟美国匹敌，然而中国比美国更受欢迎。
环境忧虑
今年的调查结果也发现，对环境问题的担忧导致部分国家民众对中国印象变差。
调查发现，环境问题已经成为世界上人民普遍担忧的问题之一，这在拉丁美洲、欧洲、日本和印度尤其明显。
报告指出，多数人认为美国和中国应对世界现存的环境问题负责，虽然人们都承认到中国的责任比美国小得多。
各国受访者普遍认为虽然美国对环境问题责任最大，但中国的责任仅次于美国。
而56%的韩国人认为中国对世界环境问题应负最大的责任；日本、德国和英国等国家持此意见的人也均超过30%。
这份调查在全球46个国家以及巴勒斯坦地区共访问了4.5万人。取样误差率在2到4个百分点之间。
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